24, Jun, 2019
Buy Jindal Steel and Power; target of Rs 217: Motilal Oswal

Buy Jindal Steel and Power; target of Rs 217: Motilal Oswal

4QFY19 consolidated EBITDA at INR18.5b (-11% QoQ) came in 12% below our estimate due to (1) higher coal costs for Jindal Power, (2) low margins at Oman Steel, and (3) shutdown at Wongawalli mine. Interest cost increased 11% QoQ to INR11.6b on rising interest rates and LC discounting. Cash PAT (pre-tax and MI) declined 35% QoQ to INR6.8b (v/s. our estimate of INR10.6b). Non-cash exceptions drag reported performance: JSP incurred write-offs of INR17.3b related to (1) additional coal penalty (INR13.5b), (2) electricity duty dispute (INR3.1b), and (3) PGP plant at Barbil (INR0.7b). We, however, note that these charges are pertaining to previous years and are non-cash in nature. JSP has also impaired INR12.9b of assets given the Wongawalli mine shutdown. Standalone steel sales rose 24% QoQ (+20% YoY) to 1.51mt, but EBITDA/t declined 20% QoQ to INR9,931 due to lower spreads. For FY19, EBITDA increased ~30% YoY to INR84.1b, led by
~26% growth in steel sales (India + Oman). Cash PAT (pre-tax and MI) increased ~60% YoY.

The stock trades attractively at 10% FY20 FCF yield. We have cut consol. EBITDA estimate by 10%/12% for FY20/FY21E to INR79b/INR87b on lower margins in Oman and higher power cost in JPL. We value the stock at INR217/sh. based on SOTP (Exhibit 15). Re-iterate Buy.